Books The Decline of the American Empire Author: August 13th, 2008 Share This Print Recent economic, financial and geopolitical events suggest that the decline of the American Empire has started. After the collapse of the Soviet Union there was a brief period where the world switched from a bipolar balance of two superpowers to a unipolar world with one economic, financial, geostrategic superpower, or better, hyperpower, i.e the United States. But by now three factors suggest that the US has squandered its unipolar moment and that the decline of the American Empire – as the US was in effect a global empire – has started.
Let us explain how and why First, the US squandered its power by relying excessively on its hard military power in the wars of Iraq and Afghanistan and in its unilateralist foreign policy – including economic issues such as global warming – rather than relying more on its soft power of diplomacy and multilateralist approaches to global policy issues. Second, regardless of mistaken US policies the rise of other economic and financial powers – the rise of China, the recent resurgence of Russia, the process of economic and political integration in the European Union, the emergence of India, and the rise of other regional powers such as Brazil, South Africa and Iran – implies that the relative economic, financial and geopolitical power of the US will be reduced over time. We are indeed slowly moving towards a multipolar world where there will be a balance of Great Powers rather than the hegemony of a single hyperpower.
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While on military terms the US is still the only superpower even its military power is now restricted by imperial overstretch and its armed forces being bogged down in Iraq and Afghanistan; thus, Russia has now been able to flex its muscle in its Central Asian backyard and humiliated the US – not just Georgia – in the latest conflict on South Ossetia. For the Bush administration having supported Georgia by words only and show its impotence – or unwillingness – to support an ally in spite of the administration push to have Georgia join NATO shows the limits of the American power. The US is at fault for effectively letting Georgia start a reckless attack on South Ossetia. Russia has scary and dangerous neo-imperial goals but deeply flawed US foreign policy of encircling a paranoid Russia allowed the worst nationalist tendencies of the Russian bear to reemerge. Third, and more important, the US squandered its economic and financial power by running reckless economic policies, especially its twin fiscal and current account deficits. The last time around the current account started to go into negative territory in 1991 after a brief surplus during the 1990-91 recession.
In the 1990s the growing US current account deficit was driven by a private investment boom – the internet technological revolution – and thus the accumulation of foreign liabilities of the US was driven by FDI and M&A activity, i.e the US accumulated foreign liabilities in the form of equity rather than debt. But since 2001 the further worsening of the US current account deficit was driven instead by growing fiscal deficits – especially in the 2001-2004 period – caused by unsustainable tax cuts and by the buildup of spending on foreign wars and on domestic security and since 2002 by the collapse of household savings and boom in investment in unproductive stock of housing capital that the housing bubble induced. And while the weak dollar is now inducing a modest improvement of the external deficit the looming sharp increase in fiscal deficits – that the current recession and financial crisis is inducing – will cause a return of twin deficits in the coming years. By now the US is the biggest net borrower in the world – running current account deficits still in the 700 billion dollars range – and the biggest net debtor in the world with its foreign liabilities now over 2.5 trillion dollars. The trouble with these twin deficits is multi-fold. First, superpowers and empires – like the British Empire at its peak – tend to be net lenders – i.e run current account surpluses – and be net creditors, not net debtors; The decline of the British Empire started in World War II when the British fiscal deficits in the war and the current account deficits turned that empire into a net borrower and a net debtor both in its public debt and external debt. That financial switch into an external debtor and borrower position was also the reason for the decline of the British pound as the leading reserve currency.
And the British twin deficits were being financed by a rising economic and financial power that was a net lender and a net creditor, the US. Second, the last time the US was running large twin deficits in the 1980s the main financers of these deficits were the friends and allies of the US, i.e Japan, Germany and Europe as the US external deficit was against these economies. Today instead the economic powers financing the US twin deficits are the strategic rivals of the US – China and Russia – and unstable petro-states, i.e Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States and other shaky petro-states. This system of vendor financing – with these US creditors providing both the goods being imported and the financing of such deficits – has led to a balance of financial terror: if these creditors were to pull the plug on the financing of the US twin deficits the dollar would collapse and US interest rates would go through the roof. Third, while it is unlikely that China, Russia and other powers would suddenly pull the rug from under the US feet – as such action would lead to a sharp appreciation of their currency and negatively affect their export led growth model – relying excessively on the kindness of strangers – especially that of your strategic rivals – is extremely risky. Since almost 100 percent of all US fiscal deficits since 2001 have been financed by non-residents – as US residents net holdings of US Treasuries have been flat since 2001 – by now the total stock of US Treasuries held by non-residents is getting close to 60 percent.
And the foreign financing of the US current account deficits has also become more risky: less FDI and equity, more debt, more short term debt, more debt held by official political actors – central banks and sovereign wealth funds –, less debt held by foreign private investors, and more debt held by politicals rivals rather than allies of the US. This change makes the US vulnerable to such rivals using the financial terror weapon – dumping US assets and or reduicing their financing of the US twin deficits – in situations of geostrategic tension. Suppose Russia flexes further its muscle in its backyard – under the pretense of defending abused Russian minorities in Ukraine, the Baltics and other former Soviet Union or Iron Curtain countries. Then Russia could use its financial power – the ability to dump hundreds of billions of dollar assets – to exert both financial and military influence. So could China over time if trouble in Taiwan or other disputed Asian territories become big geopolitical issues. Russia and China are already winning the new war for the control of commodities and ressources through their investments in Africa and Latin America – in the case of China – and its domestic and foreign control of energy and pipelines in Central Asia in the case of Russia. China and Russia are indeed winning the new Scramble for Resources.
Fourth, the foreign creditors of the US are getting tired of financing the US in the form of low-yielding US Treasuries. Thus the switch of such reserve holdings to SWFs that are planning to make large equity investments possibly with actual control of corporate firms and financial institutions that are desperate for capital to recapitalize themselves. But this desire of our creditors to get equity investments – the gems of the US corporate world – rather than low yield debt instruments is hitting the political backlash of financial protectionism as the UNOCAL- CNOOC, the Dubai Ports cases and the likely protectionist reform of the C IFIUS process of approving FDI in the US suggest. But a country that needs to borrow from abroad 700 to 800 billion dollar a year to finance its external deficit cannot afford to be too choosy on the ways – equity rather than debt – that its lenders and creditors want to finance those deficits. The first rule of good manners if you are a guest is that you don’t spit on the plate from which your host is feeding you. But in its creeping financial protectionism the US thinks it can dictate to other countries the form and the terms of the financing of its twin deficits. This attitude will not be allowed by such creditors to last much longer.
The ensuing decline of the US dollar as the main reserve currency will take time and will not occur overnight; but it is inexorable given the relative fall in US economic, financial and geopolitical power. Already Russia is flexing its muscle and pushing for an international role of the ruble; the euro is rising as a major reserve currency; central banks and SWFs will slowly but surely start to diversify away from dollar assets especially as the Bretton Woods 2 regime starts to unravel; and even the RMB may become the dominant currency in Asia in the next decade as capital controls are slowly removed in China. It will take little time – if the secular decline of the value of the dollar continues – for oil and other commodities to be priced in currencies other than the dollar or in a basket of currencies. All these changes in the economic, financial, reserve currency and geopolitical role and relative power of the US will not occur overnight. But the trend is clear.
The rise of the BRICs and other emerging market economies; the continuation of the process of economic and political integration in Europe; the US policy mistakes in economic, financial and foreign policies will steadily erode the power of the American Empire. This process will not be sudden and will take a couple of decades. But the trend is clear: the brief period of unipolar power of the American hyperpower is now over and a new age of balance of great powers is starting in the world. Also, the rise of non governmental actors – multinational corporations, NGOs, terrorist groups, non-nation state powers, failed and unstable states, non-traditional global players – will radically change the traditional balance of power as the power of nation states will shrink relative to that of other global players. 253323500 Responses http%3A%2F%2Fwww.economonitor.com%2Fnouriel%2F2008%2F08%2F13%2Fthe-decline-of-the-american-empire%2F The+Decline+of+the+American+Empire 2008-08-13+07%3A24%3A40 Nouriel+Roubini http%3A%2F%2Fwww.economonitor.com%2Fnouriel%2F2008%2F08%2F13%2Fthe-decline-of-the-american-empire%2F to “The Decline of the American Empire” Guest.
The US is reaping what it has sewn – electing a seemingly ideologically pure but stupid president. Eight years of deficits don’t matter and stupid tax cuts.
So what does one expect other than destruction of the US from stupid policies and religiosity as the basis for decisions?crgordon MASHIACH BEN CHANA. SECONDOFORZA PARTIGIANI MASHIACH BEN CHANA. WELL SAID PROFESSOR RUBINI BRAVO. FANTASTIC POSTTHE RUSSIANS ARE COMINGHELLO RUSSIA GOODBYE NATO Zeke. I agree. The thing I keep telling myself is who we elect is a reflection of ourselves.
Not a reflection of all of us but enough. Brandon Cox. Thank your George W.
AussieRob. Given that the news clips we see have such enlightened views like “I ain’t voting for no woman and certainly no nigger” I can see you having a geriatric running the place down for another 8 years. Don’t expect a “the empire strikes back” sequel, you are about to join the 3rd world and get the sort of reception cops get in prison. Mark.
So what are the options? I agree with the assessment, but what can be done to adjust the state of affairs? The US could make bold policy moves, but the political will of our elected officials is not there. Anonymous. The Georgia war is indeed a big turning point — the US tried to circle Russia taking advantage of its weakness.
Now Russia is fighting back and making the US and its puppets look like fools. No one is buying the US “democracy” brand any more because they know its not real.
I think we are going to have a real new COLD WAR and the return of proxy battles involving countries like ISRAEL which already had a big role in the Georgia fiasco: Brian Shriver. Agree with everything butNot sure that US interest rates would go through the roof. If foreign investors diversified away from the USD, they would have to sell their USD to Mr.
Somebody in the forex market (for a plummeting price). Somebody would then be flush with cash, willing and able to invest in US government bonds. It’s true he may not want to, but he probably will, since bonds rally when financial crises occur.FWIW London Banker. @ Professor RoubiniGreat blunt writing here, and I agree that the US has squandered the sympathy it had in the wake of 9/11 when even Iran offered immediate cooperation and sympathy with Americans.But can we use “multilateral” instead of “multipolar”? I don’t think multi-polar makes sense (geographically or politically) as it implies the Bush-style “you’re either with us or against us” line up of nations. Frankly it invites the sort of bi-polar decision-making we’ve had all too much of over the past generation.
Nations have complex interests and cultures, which create complex matrices of interaction, driving patterns of cooperation and aversion.I’m tired of simplicity, dumbing down of difficult, complex geo-political issues into Us and Them stances. We need – all of us – to rebuild structures for cooperative discussion and decision-making in global political and economic affairs that respect sovereignty while ensuring that global norms are both expressed clearly and upheld by the community as well as individual nations (particularly those with nukes). Anonymous.
I agree with long term analysis, but in the short term of a gathering global recession, the dollar may be looked at as a safe haven, for no other reasons than there’s nothing there right now to replace(certainly no one would argue that China or Russia are more stable) and simple inertia, which one should never under estimate the power of, in the affairs of man. Guest. So, the U.S. Should ignore all the terrorist attacks? Taking no stand brought the attacks to our soil. You are right, we should pull out of Europe, the M.E., and Guest. Mr Roubini,you miss one very important aspect of the situation today.If the Peak Oil theory is true (and all the facts are showing that it is true), then the US army is very well positioned in the middle east and the debt of USA will never be paid back.
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Guest. I had one history professor friend compare the Maritime Dutch Golden Age to the current state of American affairs. It’s not exactly the same but he pointed to the fact that the Dutch, over time, outsourced everything and ran a massive deficit.
The Dutch lost their positions eventually. Sound familiar?Also, this same friend made this comment, “All Empires went bankrupt first before they crashed.” Anonymous. Professor Roubini – thanks.A pretty example from today. Do you think Russia is the enemy now? Think again – it just made a big investment in U.S. Steel manufacturing: MOSCOW, August 13 (RIA Novosti) – Novolipetsk Steel LSE: NLMK, one of Russia’s largest steel producers, said on Wednesday it had signed a final agreement to acquire the U.S.-based pipe manufacturer John Maneely Company (JMC) for $3.53 billion.Under the deal, Novolipetsk Steel will acquire the U.S.
Steel pipe and tube producer from a group of shareholders, including global private equity firm Carlyle Group and the Zekelman family, on a debt free, cash free basis. The deal is subject to regulatory approvals and is expected to be closed in the fourth quarter.”The acquisition of JMC fits with NLMK’s stated strategy of portfolio diversification and downstream integration in the core markets of the company. It strengthens NLMK’s position in North America and provides an entry point into an important and high-margin end market,” Novolipetsk Steel said in a statement.Established through the merger of John Maneely Company and Atlas Tube in 2006 and headquartered in Ohio, JMC operates eleven plants in five U.S.
States and one Canadian province. The company has annual production capacity of over 3 million metric tons of steel pipe and tube, Novolipetsk Steel said. I wonder what McCain’s comment on this hehehe Guest. The march continues toward a bigger and bigger non-competitive behemoth banking monopoly. The most influential and well-connected members of the banking cartel and its Fed tit, the 19 et al, are picking up the spoils of the destroyed and crippled after they themselves have their large, defaulted loans and dead investments restored to life by a Congressional pledge of tax dollars.
And now, we can listen with serious demeanor to their “investment strategists” – a la Merrill’s Bernstein — telling us just how it is and will be. Well, he ought to know. And we ought to know who will end up with all the toys after Bernstein’s “massive consolidation.” So many here seem to love and admire the vast power of the Fed. But, hey, we can blame all the damage on little George — the mastermind of worldwide economic enslavement.Credit Crisis Still `Far From Over,’ Merrill’s Bernstein SaysAug. 13 (Bloomberg) — The credit crisis is “broad, deep, and global” and “far from over” for financial companies even after they reported $500 billion in writedowns and credit losses, Merrill Lynch & Co.’s chief investment strategist said.“Investors are significantly underestimating both the scope and the extent of the credit bubble and the consequences of its subsequent deflation,” Richard Bernstein wrote in a note to clients. “The problems are not confined to large institutions that are overexposed to U.S.
Subprime loans.”The lingering effects of the crisis mean banks and brokerages need “massive” consolidation because of the glut of lending worldwide, Bernstein said.Profit for U.S. Banks and brokerages tumbled 94 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, according to Bloomberg data. Financial stocks in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index have tumbled 28 percent this year for the worst performance among 10 industry groups.To contact the reporter on this story: Jeff Kearns in New York at.
Guest. In a recent posting of the Merk Fund newsletter, Axel Merk noted that holdings of Euro’s in the US Gov’t accounts had gone down suddenly. This supports the view that the recent upsurge in the US dollar was a currency intervention, and not a clear long-term change in the fortunes for the US dollar. Naturally, we all know that Mr.
Paulson is very good at “dancing and prancing”, so temporarily this maneuver makes things look (technically) as though a major currency change has occurred. But it hasn’t. In fact, we’re rapidly approaching the point where Fannie Mae is completely insolvent. See John Hussman’s article this week (www.hussmanfunds.com).Meanwhile, don’t know if you caught the interview with President Bush on NBC during the Olypics.
At one point the president was asked something like this: “What do you think about the relationship between the US and Chine, as America has problems while China is moving rapidly ahead?”. And the President’s response”: “America doesn’t have any problems.”The response in Washington is to turn the dial on the “BS Meter” to maximum.PeteCA maynardgkeynes. If the foreign creditors of the US really are “getting tired of financing the US in the form of low-yielding US Treasuries” and “are planning to make large equity investments,” as Prof Roubini asserts, I have to question how unlikely it is that China, Russia and other powers would suddenly “pull the rug from under the US feet – as such action would lead to a sharp appreciation of their currency,” as Prof Roubini also asserts. An appreciation of their currencies would allow them to buy US corporate assets on the cheap, which is their long term goal. Thus, they have much less stake long term in a strong US dollar than is generally thought. Guest.
@Guest: “So, the U.S. Should ignore all the terrorist attacks? Taking no stand brought the attacks to our soil. You are right, we should pull out of Europe, the M.E., and”Do I detect an oxymoron here? Taking no stand brought the attacks to OUR SOIL. So, WE should PULL OUT OF EUROPE, THE M.E. ANDThe Neocon Party’s slogan: “War is Peace; Freedom is Slavery; Ignorance is Strength; Defense is Terrorism.” Guest.
Written by MASHIACH BEN CHANA on 2008-08-13 08:13:51Can you provide some in depth and accurate information on the forum provided for this subject?? See home page for”Conflict in Georgia: Economic and Financial Fallout by Kavitha Cherian and Rachel Ziemba Aug 11, 2008″hlowe Anonymous.
Echoes of Niall Ferguson’s “Colossus: The Rise and Fall of the American Empire” Penguin 2005. Anonymous. Any thoughts on the possibility (?) mentioned in the “factional” book titled Implosion (by Peter Koenig) of the U.S. Secretly working on a return to some sort of Gold Standard for its currency – given that confidence/trust is beginning to wane? Guest. Now we know why Bob Scheer was fired from his base paper, The L.A. No establishment media, especially the Sam Zell-looted Times, can tolerate an investigative truth-teller when the flame gets too close to the gasoline.Today’s Scheer blockbuster puts the neocons and John McCain in the forefront of Georgia’s surprise attack on South Ossetia.Yes, Russia helped with provocations and it greatly benefits from the outcome.
But the main story, trust me, is right inside those paragraphs from Robert Scheer. Excerpts:“Georgia War a Neocon Election Ploy?” by Robert ScheerAugust 13, 2008 — Is it possible that this time the October surprise was tried in August, and that the garbage issue of brave little Georgia struggling for its survival from the grasp of the Russian bear was stoked to influence the U.S.
Presidential election?Before you dismiss that possibility, consider the role of one Randy Scheunemann, for four years a paid lobbyist for the Georgian government who ended his official lobbying connection only in March, months after he became Republican presidential candidate John McCain’s senior foreign policy adviser.Previously, Scheunemann was best known as one of the neoconservatives who engineered the war in Iraq when he was a director of the Project for a New American Century. It was Scheunemann who, after working on the McCain 2000 presidential campaign, headed the Committee for the Liberation of Iraq, which championed the U.S.
Invasion of IraqYes, it sounds diabolical, but that may be the most accurate way to assess the designs of the McCain campaign in matters of war and peace. There is every indication that the candidate’s demonization of Russian leader Putin is an even grander plan than the previous use of Saddam to fuel American militarism with the fearsome enemy that it desperately needs.McCain gets to look tough with a new Cold War to fight while Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama, scrambling to make sense of a more measured foreign policy posture, will seem weak in comparison.
Meanwhile, the dire consequences of the Bush legacy that McCain has inherited, from the disaster of Iraq to the economic meltdown, conveniently will be ignored. But the military-industrial complex, which has helped bankroll the neoconservatives, will be provided with an excuse for ramping up a military budget that is already bigger than that of the rest of the world combinedaleister perdurabo. If only we had listened: bytheway. Remember “wag the dog”?”The spin doctor Connie Brean (Robert De Niro) partners with the Hollywood producer Stanley Motss (Dustin Hoffman) to concoct a straight-to-video war with Albania. They want to deflect public attention from the charge that their candidate, the President, improperly touched an adolescent girl.”Sounds familiar.They are playin always the same game. Bytheway.
@ aleister perduraboLooks like Carter was the only President who tells his citizens the truth.And they kicked him. Guest. Whimsical diversion from “sharp elbowed” financialsGuest. The Russians remember Kosovo. Guest. Pelham Grenvillea little like Fothergill.
Devastatingly perfect prose. Gloomy. Nouriel,Great post as always. Thanks for addressing inflation and the dollar in your most recent efforts. In addition to your well made points, IMO another factor weighing on the dollar will be that declining exports of our creditors in this very deep recession/depression, will leave them with less capital available to purchase our treasuries. This slowdown in treasury demand will occur just as we increase treasury sales, due to massive corporate bailouts and declining tax revenues.
In this way, the US economic slowdown will precipitate a rise in treasury rates and weakening of the dollar. WAWAWA. Thank your George W. Ever.Absolutly, I regret that I voted for this a$$ whole.Bush has betrayed principals of economic conservatism among other things.saddest part is that general public do not know how weak the US has become.
Roubini – your “Decline of the American Empire” is a profound undertaking. No one else would have taken on an analysis of this detail, with such economic and political magnitude, without any political bias.
You, Professor, are a valuable resource and we are lucky to have you. Bytheway. Take a lock at chapter 16 and you will see, US hasnt become weak, it was weak long time ago, but with “statistics” they deceived the sheople.It seems to me that most folks in financial blog were Bush voters.Asthonising.Where you all blind?He was an Idiot since his first day. GLOOMY. NO PLACE TO RUN AND HIDE, PART 2From the Telegraph:”What we are about to see is a race to the bottom by the world’s major currencies as each tries to devalue against others in a beggar-thy-neighbour policy to shore up exports, or indeed simply because they have to cut rates frantically to stave off the consequences of debt-deleveraging and the risk of an outright Slump.”Better put a little gold in your portfolio, just in case. Economy: Retail Sales Fell in July, Led by Autos (Update2)Aug.
13 (Bloomberg) — Sales at U.S. Retailers dropped in July for the first time in five months as record gasoline prices and tighter credit reduced automobile purchases.Spending dropped 0.1 percent from June, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. Excluding cars, sales rose 0.4 percent, less than anticipated. The Labor Department said prices of imported goods soared 21.6 percent in the year to July, the most since at least 1982.Consumer spending, which makes up more than two-thirds of the economy, is likely to keep fading as a boost from tax rebates wanes and households try to cope with job losses and house-price declines. Macy’s Inc., the No. Department-store chain, today said profit may fall more than it forecast. Wal-Mart Stores Inc., Kohl’s Corp.
Also report this week.“With the tax-rebate effects dissipating and the labor market weakening, we should see consumer spending slow through the remainder of the year,” said Dana Saporta, an economist at Dresdner Kleinwort in New York, which correctly forecast sales excluding autos.Import prices rose 1.7 percent in July from the previous month, more than economists had projected, after a 2.9 percent increase in June, Labor figures showed.“We are in the midst of a long-term trend in inflation,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at Merk Investments LLC in Palo Alto, California. “We can’t sugarcoat this. It’s not a good thing.” Guest. CNBC: Goldman’s Joseph Cohen Still Sees Market StrenghthsPlease let me know when she turns bearish (or even neutral) on the market so I can leverage the farm to go long equities. That would be the contrarian signal of all time. Guest. Looks like Paulson finally got out of the hot tub to buy S&P futures.
Guest. Zero to 8000 in 60 Seconds – Hedge funds grew from just $39B in 1990 to more than $2T at the peak last year. At the peak, there were more than 8,000 hedge funds. We’ve lost about 500 over the past year, and that number is going to hyper-escalate moving forward. But there is a catch (see below). In any event, these two numbers scream out.
Painful unwinding ahead. We are already seeing it, with some estimates of growth in hedge funds for the first six months of this year showing an outflow of funds, and the most optimistic numbers showing just a $30B inflow, compared to more than $150B in the first six months of 2007. Keep that in the back of your mind. A $2T unwind at 7:1 leverage. Guest. As the truckers would say on their CBs, the flag-antenna patriots jumped on Russia faster than a rat on a Cheeto Guest.
OUTSIDE GORI, Georgia – Russian troops and paramilitaries rolled into the strategic Georgian city of Gori on Wednesday, apparently violating a truce designed to end the conflict that has uprooted tens of thousands and scarred the Georgian landscape.Yikes! Anonymous.
This distruction started a long time ago, what your talking about is results from a probem which is a result from another problem which is a result from the REAL problem. Keep digging tho, and follow the moeny. Angry. When you look at the all the problems the U.S. Faces, the drivers boil down to a few points:1) Politicians are not accountable to the people anymore (if ever)2) Politicians are manufactured candidates with little real leadership experience or ability–example GW as a war president (from all that training and experience in the Texas National Guard?)3) U.S. Citizens are uneducated and uninterested in politics. Partly their fault and partly the system.
Look at mainstream media–when is the last time you saw a real debate on issues?4) Politics is now entertainment. Candidate debates are sound-bytes5) Regulation is non-existent and corporations do not look out for the individual6) Americans consume too much stuff. Our productivity is slipping b/c the country doesn’t invest in anything meaningful like education or infrastructure. Instead we speculate in housing and buy escalades. That is why we are all in debt.7) Empires rise and fall. I can’t see anything truly redeeming in the U.S.’s future outside of technology (which can only do so much)8) The U.S.
System is perfectly setup for the rich to screw the poor and middle-class. ArtS. Dr Roubini,I agree a with you, I see you are changing your thinking about the USA, you are giving more weight to inflation and money printing (last blogs) and now you are seeing the USA more from a global economy perspective, this is a top down analysis, great!, the implication is that the American consumer will not the driving force of the global economy for much longer.From the economic data I can see we have a “make believe” economy represented from the official data like GDP, CPI, unemployment etc. That make the situation to look much better than actually is and the real economy that could be represented from data like Shadow Government Statistics atto SGS data unemployment is around 14%, GDP is mostly negative since the 2000 recession, CPI is in the order of 12% and M3 growth is 16%, very dismal data indeed.
I know many people would say why we have to believe more in the SGS data than in government statistics. SGS claims they do their statistics according to methodologies previously used, e.g. CPI as it was calculated in the 1980’s and 1990’s, since governments were changing methodologies to show a better scenario I am more inclined to believe on SGS than official data, besides it feels more realistic.The big problem I see with the official figures is that all the conclusions that an economist could make could be totally wrong. Garbage in, garbage out. It is an exercise in futility.
For instance predictions that recession started in the first quarter this year would be non sense because we were already in a recession, we were in a stagflation state at the beginning of 2008 when we were discussing the need for an external shock to create this situation etc. Richinar. I wish desperately that I could argue against the points made in this most recent post.
I still believe that we as Americans can change our future. We may never again have the standing in the world as we once did, but that does not mean we must be marginalized either.Change is deperately need at all levels of government.
We can not spend our way out of trouble. Change must begin now and here at home on the most basic levels.
Vote out incumbents to start with. Force change. Bsetser.
Nouriel — i think you are understating the extent to which the US can determine the assets its creditors buy. So long as its creditors are resisting exchange rate pressure/ not spending the commodity windfall they more or less have to buy euros and dollars. There aren’t big enough markets elsewhere to absorb their surpluses.
And if they cannot buy asset a, they end up having to buy asset b. It isn’t fair perhaps, but the united states creditors aren’t buying us assets for returns.
That is why cuts in us rates (far more damaging to the financial interests of us creditors than protectionism — and incidentally, here us “fiancial protectionism” is in some sense balancing others exchange rate protectionism/ closed capital account) haven’t reduced official financing of the US. And that is why Dubai ports world and Cnooc/ unocal were associated with more not less Chinese and Gulf demand for us financial assets. To have leverage, the united states creditors need to be able to credibly threaten not to buy any us assets if the us protects some assets. To do that tho they need to stop pegging to the $. And recently china doubled down on its peg Tor. Georgia started its shock and awe firebombing of a city of Tshinvalli and killed Russian peacekeepers a day before Russia responded, yet media largely covers that fact. Russia is uprooting military infrastructure e.g.
Destroying leftover military artillery base in Gori that western media calls “looting”. Footage of a residential building with upper floors burning is a result of munitions detonation at that artillery base bombed by Russian air force.What is scary is that US administration is hell bent on defending its Georgian pet project taking escalation steps. I know what I am talking about as I took part in the same US sponsored program as current Georgian prez.Next 6 months of Bush administration are going to be scary. Something happened on Aug 6th that led Bush to decide on escalation: many decisions took place vies-a-vi Israeli prime minister, Pakistan, Iran. Does anyone see similarity to 1914?
Does anyone suspect psychological problems of Georgian prez? AfA. @ AngryThat’s a good start. I am talking about your name. About the points you made, they are all good, but I only see them as consequences. To think today’s problems are results of only incompetence is do the responsible a favor. E.Downe.
Bush can be blamed for a lot. But I am convinced the trouble began with the naive “domino theory” that put us in Vietnam. Guest. S&P now green. Paulson can get back in the water. Guest.
AfA. Nouriel,Is this why Paulson went to the Gulf then to Beijing: Finalizing (or begging for) a deal?Does the USA qualify for a loan and rebuilding program from the IMF and World Bank? Aleister perdurabo. Nice rant by Paul Craig Rogers on Counterpoint.
Part of it below:Every country is tired of war except for the US. War, including nuclear war, is the neoconservative strategy for world hegemony.The entire world, except for Americans, knows that the outbreak of armed conflict between Russian and Georgian forces in South Ossetia was entirely due to the US and its Georgia puppet, Saakashvili.
Our website provides the agent, manager, and publicist contact details for Guy Gerber. Whether you are looking to get in touch with Guy Gerber's agent for an event, or Guy Gerber management for an endorsement, we can provide you the best and most accurate contacts. If you have any questions on how to use our service, you can contact: [email protected]. Book Guy Gerber. Guy Gerber email, contact Guy Gerber management, Guy Gerber manager for business, bookings, pricing, hire. Contact Guy Gerber.
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The site is very straightforward and any information I need is easy to search for. Electronic DJ and music producer Guy Gerber was born in Holon, Israel in 1974.
As a teenager, he was a member of the Israeli Under-16 national football team, before he discovered a passion for music, inspired by acts such as Joy Division and My Bloody Valentine, whose influence is still noticeable in his music today. He recorded tracks for various European electronic labels before releasing several albums on John Digweed’s Bedrock label. In June of 2007, Gerber released his first full length album, Late Bloomers, on Sven Vath’s Cocoon label. The album contained the club hits “Belly Dancing” and “Sea of Sand”, which he recorded with fellow Israeli producer Shlomi Aber. In addition to his own productions, Gerber has remixed tracks for acts including (“Waiting for the Siren’s Call”), Deniz Kurtel (“The L Word”) and Azari & III (Hungry For The Power.”) In 2009, Gerber launched his own label, Supplement Facts, which just celebrated its fifth anniversary with the compilation album Heartbeats. In addition to releasing Gerber’s own music, the label is home to Lee Curtiss, David K., Michael Cleis and Varoslav.
In 2010, rapper recruited Gerber to work on his album Last Train to Paris. After the album’s release, Diddy attempted to convince Gerber to assemble a Last Train to Paris remix album, but Gerber wasn’t interested.
Instead, the two decided to collaborate on a completely new album. Released in August of 2014, 11:11 contains a mix of rap, dance and electronica music. Guy Gerber contact information is available for you to look at. We have Guy Gerber’s manager information, along with her booking agents info as well.
If you want the Guy Gerber email address for her management team, or booking agency, we have that available for you to view by signing up. You can find the Guy Gerber booking info and booking price here.
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